This is what a double dip recession would look like:
The cost of homes in the areas where prices have already dropped by 50% or more will continue to fall. These regions typically have the highest unemployment rates, the local governments are hard pressed to offer basic services, and potential buyers are aware that home prices could drop further. Real estate values in these areas could drop another 20%. In the rest of the country, protracted unemployment and the unwillingness of banks to lend would make otherwise attractive all-time low mortgage rates unappealing.
The last downturn was so great that in some months more than 500,000 people lost jobs. The unemployment rolls are now more than 8 million, and perhaps more gravely, over 1.4 million people have been out of work for over 99 weeks – which means they are no longer eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits. This segment of the population has already begun to add to the number of indigent Americans and will continue to do so unless they can find homes with friends and family.
The second dip of the recession that ended in 2009, according to economists and the federal government, is likely to begin within the next two quarters.
- California economist’s tutorial on double-dip recession (sfgate.com)
- Lloyd Chapman: Double Dip Recession Could be Prevented with Silver Bullet Bill (huffingtonpost.com)
- What the Double Dip Recession Will Look Like (247wallst.com)
As the great majority of economists have pointed out, the Fed has already dropped interest rates to zero. This means the central bank is out of ammunition.
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